Title

An Unlucky Feeling: Persistent Overestimation of Absolute Performance with Noisy Feedback

Document Type

Journal Article

Role

author

Standard Number

0167-2681

Journal Title

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Volume

84

Issue

2

First Page

510

Last Page

524

Publication Date

2012

Abstract

We offer an explanation for the vast literature finding that people are overconfident in their abilities: they view noisy but unbiased performance assessments to be, on average, "unlucky." We determine that overconfident priors and biased information processing both play a role in the persistence of overconfidence.

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